in a state of flux(t)

Impact of Earl on New England
Residents in Eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts need to complete all of their hurricane preparations by early Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, winds will rise quickly. Earl's recent increase in strength means that New England will see a stronger hurricane than was expected. The latest track forecasts still keep the eye barely offshore, or have it passing over Nantucket and the extreme eastern tip of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The 5am NHC intensity forecast calls for Earl to have top winds of 100 mph at 2am Saturday, when the storm is expected to be over or just offshore of the eastern tip of Cape Cod. Earl will be moving near 25 mph at that time, meaning that that top sustained winds on the north side of the eye, over land, will be 50 mph, and the winds will be 100 mph on the south side over water. NHC is giving a 10% chance that a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet will occur in Long Island Sound (Figure 4), and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A small deviation in Earl's track to the left, resulting in a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10+ billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a 7 - 15 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 3%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 7% in Providence, 4% in Boston, 7% in Eastport, Maine, and 17% in Hyannis.